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=09=09Welcome to our second installment of Insights@CERA, a  bi-monthly rev=
iew of CERA research and analysis, upcoming events, new  services, and expe=
rt commentary.  You are receiving this new service  as a benefit of your CE=
RA agreement. Should you prefer not to receive this  bi-monthly communicati=
on, please follow the directions at the bottom of  this message to remove y=
our name from our list of recipients.   =09


=09=09 Insights@CERA   Issue 2, January  2002    Featured This Month:  Upco=
ming Events    New Products and Services    New Research    Multimedia High=
lights    CERA in the News     UPCOMING EVENTS  CERAWEEK 2002  "The New Fac=
e of Risk: Energy  Strategies for a Changed World", February 11-15, 2002 in=
 Houston, Texas. -  The premier international gathering of senior energy de=
cision makers. How  will global uncertainty impact strategic investment dec=
isions? How will it  reshape infrastructure strategies and the relationship=
 between the public  and private sectors? How should business respond to th=
e changing nature of  risk and need? CERAWeek will offer a framework for un=
derstanding and  navigating these complicated issues.    NEW  PRODUCTS AND =
SERVICES  CERAWEEK ONLINE PREMIUM  SERVICE  CERAWeek Online will deliver a =
comprehensive online  experience of the CERAWeek proceedings, featuring dai=
ly highlights and  interviews with speakers, live simulcasts of keynote and=
 plenary sessions,  on-demand access to a wide variety of sessions, and onl=
ine briefings by  CERA experts delivered via the web in an easy-to-use form=
at.  THE HUB OF COMPETITION:  THE FUTURE OF THE GERMAN GAS MARKET  This new=
 major multiclient  study assesses the key issues in the German gas market =
on both a strategic  and an operational level. The study provides a framewo=
rk for thinking  about such issues as industry structure, strategy, and mar=
ket  development.  NEW REALITIES, NEW RISKS:  NORTH AMERICAN POWER AND GAS =
THROUGH 2020  An authoritative CERA  multiclient study that provides analys=
is and scenario-based insight into  the future of the North American power =
and gas industries, including  detailed long-term regionally specific marke=
t and price outlooks through  2020.   NEW  RESEARCH  INDIA-PAKISTAN WAR?  R=
ISKS AND IMPLICATIONS Prospects are growing that a short, sharp war  could =
occur between India and Pakistan over the next several weeks. It is  not in=
evitable; diplomacy could still pull the two parties  back.  OPEC TILTS TO =
MARKET SHARE With demand growth evaporating,  OPEC's efforts to gain non-OP=
EC participation in production restraint  reflect its growing concern about=
 market share now that prices are no  longer rising enough to offset cuts i=
n production. During 2001 OPEC lost  market share by cutting its quota a to=
tal of 3.5 million barrels per day  (mbd) while non-OPEC production increas=
ed nearly 600,000 barrels per  day.  NATURAL GAS WATCH: A SHORTAGE OF DEMAN=
D Since January,  natural gas prices have fluctuated between $2.00 per MMBt=
u at the Henry  Hub and $10.00, a result of weather, fuel switching, and in=
creasing  supplies. Loss of demand due to economic weakness is exacerbated =
by the  impact of the tragedy of September 11. Lower prices have already sl=
owed  drilling activity. Although ample storage levels will guard against l=
ast  year's peaks, gas prices will likely to continue to oscillate in the n=
ear  term.  TWENTY YEARS LATER--A NEW SPIN ON WIND Energy security and  env=
ironmental quality considerations continue to increase the level of  intere=
st in renewable energy. Wind power is and will likely remain a  leading ben=
eficiary of the demand for more diversified and "greener"  power. However, =
when considering future market prospects, the competitive  advantages of wi=
nd must be balanced with certain realities.  SPANISH  GAS AUCTION: A PRECED=
ENT FOR EUROPE? The recent auction of contract gas  in Spain represents an =
early initiative both to release gas from  preexisting long-term contracts =
and to make it available to aspiring  market entrants. As such, CERA believ=
es it could provide a precedent for  other European markets (and for their =
regulators) where release gas  programs have not so far been on the public =
agenda.  RECESSION  DEEPENS DOWN PHASE IN POWER MARKETS The US power genera=
tion business is  entering the bust phase of a boom/bust cycle. Most region=
s have recently  crossed an inflection point from tightness in the past to =
surplus over the  next few years.  For more details on any of these reports=
, go to: http://www.cera.com/news/highlights .   MULTIMEDIA HIGHLIGHTS  BEY=
OND THE CRISIS:  NEAR-TERM GLOBAL ENERGY FUTURES  CERA President and CEO Jo=
seph A.  Stanislaw answers clients' questions on CERA's new global energy s=
cenario  initiative.  NEW REALITIES, NEW  RISKS  CERA Senior Director Lawre=
nce J. Makovich highlights the key  themes of CERA's new multiclient study,=
 New Realities, New Risks: North  American Power and Gas Through 2020.  INF=
ORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AND  ELECTRIC POWER  CERA Director Steven Taub discus=
ses CERA's new  Information Technologies and Electric Power multiclient stu=
dy.  EUROPEAN  GAS ISSUES  (Clients Only) CERA Director Simon Blakey sat do=
wn  recently with CERA's New Media team to discuss some of the critical iss=
ues  currently facing the industry and the short-term research focus of the=
  European Natural Gas service.   CERA  IN THE NEWS  CERA and Sun Microsyst=
ems announce the  release of GLOBAL OIL TRENDS 2002  The global oil industr=
y is beset  by turmoil in the pricing of its basic commodity--crude oil. Ho=
w does an  industry so important to the world's economic system survive in =
an  environment of such extreme price volatility for its commodity? Global =
Oil  Trends highlights key developments--What are the trends in oil demand =
and  supply? Which countries are seeing increases in reserves and what is  =
refining capacity globally? For more information, please visit http://www.c=
era.com/trends .  E-Business Is Central to the  Strategies of Energy Enterp=
rises  CERA Director Brian Costello's  comentary on the role of e-business =
and digital technology innovation in  on-line energy trading in Line 56 mag=
azine's November issue.      COMMENTS? FEEDBACK? Please take a moment to  r=
eview this issue of Insights@CERA and let  us know your thoughts  by sendin=
g an email to insights@cera.com .    =09


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